Friday, October 9, 2009

EnergyCrude Oil Edges Higher To Three-Week High

(RTTNews) - Crude oil prices gained slightly on Friday and extended a three-week closing high. An encouraging trade balance report boosted hopes for energy demand.

Light sweet crude oil for November delivery closed at $71.77 per barrel, up 8 cents on the session. Prices touched as high as $72.35 and as low as $70.62.

The dollar strengthened as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated last night that low interest rates will likely remain in effect for the foreseeable future.

A Commerce Department report showed that the trade deficit narrowed to $30.7 billion in August from a revised $31.9 billion in July. Economists had been expecting the deficit to widen to $33.0 billion compared to the $32.0 billion originally reported for the previous month.

The International Energy Agency increaased its demand forecast for 2010 to 1.42 million barrels per day , an increase of 150,000 bpd from its previous forecast.

The IEA forecasts world oil demand to average 86.05 million bpd next year. For 2009, it expects demand to average 84.63 million bpd.

For the week, crude closed up $1.82 per barrel, boosted by a gain of $2.12 on Thursday. This erased the losses from Wednesday when oil fell on a larger-than-expected build in gasoline inventories.

FinancialIEA Upwardly Revises Global Oil Demand Forecast

RTTNews) - The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly oil market report Friday, revealing that it was raising its global oil demand forecast.

According to the IEA report, the agency's global oil demand growth forecast for 2010 has been has been revised to 1.42 million barrels per day (bpd), an increase of 150,000 bpd from its previous forecast.

The IEA forecasts world oil demand to average 86.05 million bpd next year. For 2009, it expects demand to average 84.63 million bpd.

Due to the upwardly revised demand forecast, the IEA said that OPEC would need to pump 28.4 million bpd next year, which is 200,000 bpd more than the agency had previously estimated.

"While OPEC is presently producing well above output targets, the existing production agreement at least holds the potential to push absolute OECD inventory levels closer to seasonal norms again by second-half 2010," the IEA said in its report.

Forex: Euro Slips Versus Dollar, Rises Versus Pound And Yen

RTTNews) - The euro slipped against the dollar after Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke sparked interest in the greenback. The European currency surged against the yen and inched higher against the sterling.

Bernanke reiterated Thursday evening that any interest rate hike would have to come on the heels of substantial evidence of economic recovery.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said Friday that this is not an appropriate time to exit stimulus measures as it would be premature to think that the crisis is over and conquered in a sustainable manner.

In economic news, Germany's consumer price index or CPI fell 0.3% year-on-year in September after posting zero growth in August, the Federal Statistical Office confirmed Friday. On a monthly basis, the CPI fell 0.4%, the first fall in four months.

The euro backed off of a two-week high against the dollar, moving below 1.4700. The European currency had hit as high as 1.4716 earlier in the week.

A Commerce Department report showed that the trade deficit narrowed to $30.7 billion in August from a revised $31.9 billion in July. Economists had been expecting the deficit to widen to $33.0 billion compared to the $32.0 billion originally reported for the previous month.

The euro challenged a 12-day high against the British pound. The European currency reached as high as 0.9269, after hitting 0.9275 earlier in the week. If the euro reaches above 0.9300, it will reach a 6 1/2-month high.

According to a report released on Friday by the Office for National Statistics, UK output prices rose 0.4% in September from the previous year, in contrast to a 0.3% fall in August and an expected 0.1% decline. Also, this was the highest annual rate since April.

The euro climbed to a two-week high against the Japanese yen, rising as high as 132.19. The European currency has been trending higher for about two days.

Elsewhere on the economic front in the Eurozone, the trade surplus decreased to EUR 8.1 billion in August from July's EUR 14.1 billion, a report from the Federal Statistical Office showed. This was also smaller than the expected surplus of EUR 12 billion and last year's EUR 10.8 billion.

Manufacturing output grew 1.9% month-on-month in August after a revised increase of 0.8% in July. Economists had forecast a 0.6% rise in output. Production has been growing since May 2009.

Germany's Federal Statistical Office announced that the total number of insolvencies increased 7.6% year-on-year to 15,187 in July.

A report by Italy' s statistical office ISTAT said industrial production rose a seasonally adjusted 7% on a monthly basis in August, faster than a revised 2.4% growth in the previous month. Economists expected a 1.5% rise. This was the second consecutive monthly rise in output.

Forex: Gold Drops Off Record Highs, But Rises More Than $40 On Week

(RTTNews) - Gold dropped off of record highs on Friday as the dollar recovered some of its recent losses versus its major rivals.

December gold futures closed at $1,047.80, down $7.60 on the session. Prices slipped as low as $1,044.70 after earlier hitting as high as $1,056.70.

Gold hit record intraday and closing highs for a third straight session on Thursday, closing at $1,055.40 after hitting a record intraday high of $1,060.40. When adjusted for inflation, gold moved near $2,000 in 1980.

The metal climbed $41.30 for the week on improved hedge appeal as the dollar weakened.

The dollar saw strength against the euro late Thursday night and added to the gains in mid-day trading on Friday. The buck also rebounded against the pound.

The dollar received a boost as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated Thursday evening that low interest rates will likely remain in effect for the foreseeable future.

A Commerce Department report showed that the trade deficit narrowed to $30.7 billion in August from a revised $31.9 billion in July. Economists had been expecting the deficit to widen to $33.0 billion compared to the $32.0 billion originally reported for the previous month.

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Crude Oil - Economic Data Lowers Demand for Crude

The price of Crude Oil was significantly lower yesterday as poor U.S. housing data and a strong Dollar weighed on the commodities market. Traders took the information as a pullback to economic growth and a sustained economic recovery, thereby reducing demand for the commodity. Oil fell below a significant support line of $66 and finished the day down at $65.85 from $68.36. Yesterday's 3.6% drop in price was the second day in a row for a pullback in Crude prices. The valuation seems to be taking hints from reported economic data. If this is the case, traders will be wise to follow today's U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales numbers. We could see Crude Oil trading at $65 by the end of today.

USD - Dollar Rebounds on Return to Risk Aversion

The Dollar came roaring back yesterday against its rivals as poor housing data and falling equity markets sapped traders appetite for risk. Existing home sales numbers were released to an unspectacular reception with the numbers failing to reach their expected targets. Only 5.10M existing homes were sold as compared with economists forecasts of 5.36M. This sent traders running from higher-yielding currencies and into long Dollar positions. Yesterday's trading was notably volatile, with the EUR/USD climbing in early European trading hours to a daily high of 1.4789, only to end the day at 1.4650 from 1.4721. Driving the early appreciation for the EUR was a lower number of U.S. Unemployment Claims. These gains were later eroded after less than spectacular housing data was released. Against the Yen the Dollar was down as traders looked for the less risky currency. The pair closed at 90.82 from 91.30.Looking ahead to today's trading, we can expect further volatility of the Dollar. The Group of Twenty (G20) meets for a second day today. Comments made by the global heads of finance can move the market fast so traders should be aware of their impact. U.S. New Home Sales data is due at 2:00pm GMT time. If the New Home Sales is anything like the Existing Homes Sales data from yesterday, the EUR/USD could continue its decline for the second day in a row to finish the week near the 1.4550 mark.

Fundamental Outlook

The euro weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4525 level and was capped around the $1.4645 level. European Central Bank officials spoke about the economy today with member Constancio noting “There is still great uncertainty regarding the depth and sustainability of a global recovery, which has led some analysts to say it might be slower than is desirable.